BEIJING — China’s manufacturing activity showed a meaningful uptick in November, recovering slightly from contractionary territory and signaling renewed business confidence, according to official data released Sunday. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in November registered 49.2, a 0.2 percentage point improvement from the previous month, as key indicators for both output and new orders improved. While a reading above 50 signifies expansion, the slight recovery suggests stabilizing conditions despite continued economic headwinds.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) illustrated the momentum shift. The sub-index for production reached the critical threshold of 50.0, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating that overall factory output maintained a stable level. Similarly, the new orders index climbed 0.4 percentage points to 49.2, signaling stronger, though still soft, demand. Sectors like agricultural food processing and non-ferrous metal smelting notably saw indices for both production and new orders firmly in the expansion zone.

Small Enterprises Drive Rebound

A significant factor in the overall movement was the sharp rebound in activity among smaller firms. The PMI for small enterprises surged 2 percentage points to 49.1, hitting a six-month high. This robust growth contrasted with larger firms, where the PMI dipped slightly to 49.3, and medium-sized enterprises, which saw a modest 0.2 percentage point rise to 48.9.

The positive trend in advanced industries continued, with the high-tech manufacturing PMI remaining strong at 50.1, maintaining an expansionary posture for the tenth consecutive month.

Market expectations reflected this renewed optimism. The sub-index gauging expectations for production and operation activity stood at 53.1, rising 0.3 percentage points from October. This confirms that manufacturers are increasingly confident about near-term market developments and future performance.

Policy Influence Bolsters Sentiment

Zhang Liqun, an analyst with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), noted that the overall improvement in the November PMI is directly correlated with a boost in market sentiment. Zhang attributed this positive momentum partly to inspiring guidance related to the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), suggesting that clear policy direction is effectively bolstering business confidence and driving increases across major economic indicators, including demand and purchasing volume.

In the non-manufacturing sector, however, activity moderated. The non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, down 0.6 percentage points from October. He Hui, Vice President of the CFLP, explained that this decline was largely attributable to seasonal shifts, following the surge of activity observed during the previous month’s “golden week” national holiday. He anticipates that services, particularly consumption, will recover as year-end festivals drive demand.

Looking ahead, experts remain cautiously optimistic. Wen Tao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, suggested that as industries enter the highly critical end-of-year period—a time for crucial policy implementation and capital deployment—market demand is expected to further stabilize and rebound. This sustained policy push is anticipated to underpin steady growth in manufacturing production into the new year. The overall slight rebound in November confirms that government incentives and steady industrial expansion continue to provide a crucial foundation for China’s economic stability.